High MPG

[Zack]

> 
> This is assuming the only alternative is current technology.  I think we
> can agree that the EV1 with its monster 1000# battery back and only 70-90
> miles per charge is a nice start, but it is not the answer.  If you want to
> take into account the energy/cost to make the battery packs and the
> electric motor to raise the cost of operation of an electric, you have to
> compare that with the energy/cost to manufacture an ICE:  Engine block,
> heads, valves, springs, rockers, pushrods, pistons, rods, cam (maybe
> solenoids in the future) exhaust system, larger coolant system, a starter,
> ignition system, larger water pump, fuel system, fuel pump, etc etc.  With
> electrics you have:  Big Induction motor which has far fewer parts, no
> exhaust system, no fuel system & compenents, no oil system, no ignition
> system, smaller coolant system.  If electrics were being produced at the
> same levels as ICEs the cost would probably be far less.  There are far
> fewer value-added manufacturing steps involved here and design tolerances
> are not as critical.
>  Crate Electric motors will probably be way cheaper
> than ICEs also(for your future aftermarket swapping enjoyment :) )  

I tend to disagree.  The electronics which go into a modern EV 
are completely non-trivial.  If it were otherwise, they would 
have started hitting the roads a long time ago.  Lest y'all forget, 
electric cars came first.  There were electric carriages toodling 
around the streets of London back in the days of steam carriages.  
Electric cars (and steam carriages too) lost out because the 
technology of the time sucked in comparison to IC's.
	The technology in these electric cars has come a long way in recent 
years, with the advent of computers and newer semiconductors making 
it much more feasible to design and run the power invertors which 
these monsters require.  Unfortunately, IC engines have progressed by 
leaps and bounds in that same period, and the same computer, sensor, 
and control technology that has benefitted electroic cars is also 
reaping benefits for IC's, bringing things like low-emissions, 
extremely high efficiency DGI cars closer to realization as well.	The 
cost of manufacturing the EV's themselves is just a tiny piece of the 
puzzle.  If everyone were to start driving electric cars, we would be 
faced with the necessity of having to make a huge increase in the 
capacity of the electric power grid in most parts of the country, 
notably central and southern California, where the capacity of the 
grid as it is now is already marginal for the summer loads 
(as events of recent summers have shown).
 	The amount of time and capital investment required to make the 
electric car idea work on a large scale, when you toss everything 
into the bucket, is pretty staggering.
 	As Honda has so aptly pointed out while publicizing the ZEV 
technology which they are bringing to fruition, electric cars are not 
Zero Emissions Vehicles.  They're really Remote Emissions Vehicles, 
and when you factor in what comes out the smokestack of the plant 
generating electricity for that EV, and compare it to IC technology 
that is currently in development, EV's suddenly don't look as 
wonderful as everyone has been claiming they are. 

> The reason it probably won't for a while is that an acceptable battery (at
> least 200mi per charge, light weight, low volume, shorter charge time, etc)
> has not been invented yet.  However, as someone said, don't bet against
> technology.

People have been working on this (batteries) since before the turn 
of the century, and the progress so far has been next to nothing.  
Even if you look at the electromotive series and just fantasize about 
things you -might- be able to build, even though you never could for 
practical reasons, it's hardly promising.  Even if you could run your 
car on Lithium batteries, which will never happen, the energy density 
of Lithium batteries is still pathetic in comparison to gasoline.

I never bet against technology, the question is which technology to 
bet for.  It's a footrace between EV's and better IC technology.  And 
what I see based on what I've read, is EV technology inching along 
with painful slowness, having made good progress in some areas over 
the last 10 years (motors and motor drive technology) but still 
foundering on the same problems which have plagued it for 100 years 
(low energy density of batteries and reliance on an inflexible power 
grid for charging), whereas IC emissions control technology and 
efficiency has progressed by leaps and bounds in the last 30 years, 
to a degree nobody would have believed possible only a short time 
ago, and the biggest improvements yet to be made are just now 
entering the pipeline, and will probably be coming to market in the 
next 5 to 10 years.
	As I see it, the only thing to recommend electric vehicles right now 
is the low emissions.  In another 10 years, when this new IC 
technology really starts to hit the market, that supposed emissions 
advantage will rapidly disappear, and companies and govornments will 
find it more and more difficult to justify continuing to throw money 
at a 100+ year old idea that never worked well to begin with and 
still doesn't work well now.  Which is not to say that I couldn't be 
proved wrong, I'm just telling you where I would place my money if I 
were betting on the thing.

Zack